A Chronicle of Deaths Foretold 1

A Chronicle of Deaths Foretold 1

The first coronavirus death occurred in India on 9 March. In this article, I am trying to sum up the disturbing story since a little before that time and offer a comprehensive picture of the pandemic in India.

Initially, India had a low rate of infection and even lower death rate. As late as on 12 May, India was doing much better than every First-World country. Both our number of patients and the death rate were low. On We had only 1.3 deaths per million as against hundreds in Europe and America. However, the situation has been changing fast.  As of yesterday, India was 10^th in terms of total cases (144,950), although our number of deaths (4,172) is much less, whatever the reasons for the lower mortality might be.

What is much more disturbing however, is the number of ACTIVE CASES. Here are the figures as on yesterday (Worldometer, 25/05/2020).

USA – 1,141,751

Russia – 230,996

Brazil – 199,314

France – 89,311

India – 80,072

Peru – 69,401

In India, the number of cases per million too has spiked from 1.3 to 105 in just two weeks. It’s still much lower than in most First-World countries, but given (A) the exponential rate of growth and (B) our abysmal healthcare infrastructure, we are in serious trouble today, particularly in big cities. I believe we are at the cusp of a steep rise, and I hope I am wrong.

Moving back to the global scene, France has been reporting fewer than 500 new cases every day for over a week. Therefore, India, with its 6,000+ new cases daily, will have more active cases than France in two days. Then, the US, Russia, Brazil, and India will remain as the enduring hotspots for some time.

None of these four is a functioning democracy today. That the virus mutated in a totalitarian state will continue to flourish in non-functional democracies is perhaps no coincidence. Governments in none these countries trust experts, or believe in inclusive consultative processes.

Our stupid one-man government imposed a total lockdown in a country of our size and complexity at three and a half hours’ notice. At that time, we had maybe, 500 active cases. And the same man, after televised shows of discussions with chief ministers, withdrew the lockdown when the active cases were pushing 70,000, thus allowing millions to travel freely and spread the disease, not to mention the huge cost of quarantining so many. And reprehensibly, the great man’s chamchas are now trying to shift the blame of His failure on the states.

The SOP to deal with the virus is: testing, contact tracing, isolating. We don’t even discuss these nowadays. Unlike South Korea, Germany, or even our own Kerala, the rest of India has neither been testing asymptomatic cases aggressively, nor quarantining possible suspects, nor isolating the positive cases early. The results are for all to see.

Here is an example regarding the Indian government’s approach to the problem. In the beginning of the pandemic, the railways wanted to convert 20,000 railway coaches into isolation wards for rural areas, which was a wonderful idea. Today, I Googled for the string “railway coaches + isolation ward”. On this, there was no news between 11 April and 24 May, when Times of India reported that those coaches were being reconverted to sleeper coaches as there were “no takers”. Wow! No takers? Have we reached the end of the pandemic? Or was the announcement just another PR exercise by a shamelessly self-promoting government?

Let me now jot down the chronology of events since January.

30 JAN: First reported corona case in Kerala; the patient had travelled from Wuhan to Kerala via Kolkata.

31 JAN: The World Health Organisation (WHO) describes the virus as an "unprecedented outbreak". But doesn’t recommend travel ban.

24 FEB: The Government of India (GOI) organises Namaste Trump in Gujarat gathering over a lakh of people, in complete disregard of safety measures. I suspect it was at the root of later spurt of cases in Gujarat.

1 TO 23 MARCH: GOI and BJP busy toppling MP govt. The first COVID-19 death in India on 09 March. On 11 March, WHO declares the COVID-19 as a pandemic. Our government does nothing.

23 MARCH: Shivraj Singh sworn in as MP CM. People gather and celebrate the victory of dishonesty and deep pockets.

24 MARCH, 8.20 PM: PM declares – as is his wont, theatrically – of a nationwide lockdown from Midnight. All domestic transportation, including buses and trains withdrawn. BUT HE DOESN’T SHARE A ROADMAP ON HOW IT WILL BE IMPLEMENTED.

Nobody gets a chance to get back home. Some away from spouse. Old parents alone and away from children. Many stuck at birthday parties. Baratis and Guests stuck at wedding venues and relatives’ homes. People who went for treatment to super-speciality hospitals in South India and all tourists are stuck.

Most importantly, migrant workers estimated to be 8 crores (by Nirmala Sitaraman) to 10 crores (by Prem Shankar Jha) stuck at their workplaces without work or money. Soon their employers / landlords would chuck them out.

International flights still operational, bringing in hordes of infected people from abroad.

25 MARCH ONWARD: Most people accept lockdown. Supply chains of essential goods broken to a great extent.

26 MARCH, MIDNIGHT: International flights stopped. But damage already done.

28 MARCH: PM sets up PM Cares fund which is beyond all government audits. Offers CSR and tax benefits for contribution to it.

After realising that no transport will be available, crores of migrant workers walk or cycle home hundreds of kilometres away. Many desperately hire auto rickshaws, trucks, and even concrete mixers to reach home.

No civilised arrangements made for their food, water, or medical help. Instead, many are beaten up for violating lockdown and dumped into prison-like camps where no                                                                                            physical distancing is possible.

Over 300 people die on the way due to fatigue or in accidents. On 18 April, a 12-year-old girl, after walking almost 150 kms from Telangana to Chhattisgarh, dies just an hour before reaching home. Pregnant woman gives birth on the road. Jyoti Kumari, a 15-year-old brave-heart, carries her debilitated father on a bicycle from Gurugram to Darbhanga, a distance of 1200 kms.

3 MAY: Flypast and flower shower by helicopters for COVID warriors. Benefit?

Shramik Special trains start after lots of pressure from all sides, but with no definite plans. Fare + Rs.50 collected from labourers who are already low on money and food.Top of Form

23 MAY: The Indian Railways have run 2,600 Shramik Specials so far, transporting around 36 lakh stranded migrants. This means they have covered about 10% of the stranded workers who wish to go home.

Nero constructs when the country cries. A needless central vista project worth Rs.20,000 crore approved, in a replay of the vulgar vainglory of some Sultans and Badshahs of Delhi dating from the 12th century to the Brits.

THE ENTIRE PERIOD OF LOCK-DOWN TILL NOW: State governments, NGOs, and countless individuals help in cash and kind to the migrant and the stranded. NGOs like Swaraj Abhijan, Karwane Mohabbat, and Mercy Mission distribute ration and food packets to lakhs and cash to thousands. A group of young people in our condominium, who had no experience of social work, distributes 10,000 food packets and dry ration. Our domestic help, a widow with two growing children who is perpetually in debt, gives 10 kgs of rice to migrant workers. The government failed us. Yet, the country hasn’t faced a famine during the last 79 days only because of the compassion and warmth of this great country expressed through their NGOs and ordinary people.

Tuesday, 26 May 2020

I will post the second part of this article on 28 March

Graphic courtesy The Worldometer