A Chronicle of Deaths Foretold 1

A Chronicle of Deaths Foretold 1

The first coronavirus death occurred in India on 9 March. In this article, I am trying to sum up the disturbing story since a little before that time and offer a comprehensive picture of the pandemic in India.

Initially, India had a low rate of infection and even lower death rate. As late as on 12 May, India was doing much better than every First-World country. Both our number of patients and the death rate were low. On We had only 1.3 deaths per million as against hundreds in Europe and America. However, the situation has been changing fast.  As of yesterday, India was 10^th in terms of total cases (144,950), although our number of deaths (4,172) is much less, whatever the reasons for the lower mortality might be.

What is much more disturbing however, is the number of ACTIVE CASES. Here are the figures as on yesterday (Worldometer, 25/05/2020).

USA – 1,141,751

Russia – 230,996

Brazil – 199,314

France – 89,311

India – 80,072

Peru – 69,401

In India, the number of cases per million too has spiked from 1.3 to 105 in just two weeks. It’s still much lower than in most First-World countries, but given (A) the exponential rate of growth and (B) our abysmal healthcare infrastructure, we are in serious trouble today, particularly in big cities. I believe we are at the cusp of a steep rise, and I hope I am wrong.

Moving back to the global scene, France has been reporting fewer than 500 new cases every day for over a week. Therefore, India, with its 6,000+ new cases daily, will have more active cases than France in two days. Then, the US, Russia, Brazil, and India will remain as the enduring hotspots for some time.

None of these four is a functioning democracy today. That the virus mutated in a totalitarian state will continue to flourish in non-functional democracies is perhaps no coincidence. Governments in none these countries trust experts, or believe in inclusive consultative processes.

Our stupid one-man government imposed a total lockdown in a country of our size and complexity at three and a half hours’ notice. At that time, we had maybe, 500 active cases. And the same man, after televised shows of discussions with chief ministers, withdrew the lockdown when the active cases were pushing 70,000, thus allowing millions to travel freely and spread the disease, not to mention the huge cost of quarantining so many. And reprehensibly, the great man’s chamchas are now trying to shift the blame of His failure on the states.

The SOP to deal with the virus is: testing, contact tracing, isolating. We don’t even discuss these nowadays. Unlike South Korea, Germany, or even our own Kerala, the rest of India has neither been testing asymptomatic cases aggressively, nor quarantining possible suspects, nor isolating the positive cases early. The results are for all to see.

Here is an example regarding the Indian government’s approach to the problem. In the beginning of the pandemic, the railways wanted to convert 20,000 railway coaches into isolation wards for rural areas, which was a wonderful idea. Today, I Googled for the string “railway coaches + isolation ward”. On this, there was no news between 11 April and 24 May, when Times of India reported that those coaches were being reconverted to sleeper coaches as there were “no takers”. Wow! No takers? Have we reached the end of the pandemic? Or was the announcement just another PR exercise by a shamelessly self-promoting government?

Let me now jot down the chronology of events since January.

30 JAN: First reported corona case in Kerala; the patient had travelled from Wuhan to Kerala via Kolkata.

31 JAN: The World Health Organisation (WHO) describes the virus as an "unprecedented outbreak". But doesn’t recommend travel ban.

24 FEB: The Government of India (GOI) organises Namaste Trump in Gujarat gathering over a lakh of people, in complete disregard of safety measures. I suspect it was at the root of later spurt of cases in Gujarat.

1 TO 23 MARCH: GOI and BJP busy toppling MP govt. The first COVID-19 death in India on 09 March. On 11 March, WHO declares the COVID-19 as a pandemic. Our government does nothing.

23 MARCH: Shivraj Singh sworn in as MP CM. People gather and celebrate the victory of dishonesty and deep pockets.

24 MARCH, 8.20 PM: PM declares – as is his wont, theatrically – of a nationwide lockdown from Midnight. All domestic transportation, including buses and trains withdrawn. BUT HE DOESN’T SHARE A ROADMAP ON HOW IT WILL BE IMPLEMENTED.

Nobody gets a chance to get back home. Some away from spouse. Old parents alone and away from children. Many stuck at birthday parties. Baratis and Guests stuck at wedding venues and relatives’ homes. People who went for treatment to super-speciality hospitals in South India and all tourists are stuck.

Most importantly, migrant workers estimated to be 8 crores (by Nirmala Sitaraman) to 10 crores (by Prem Shankar Jha) stuck at their workplaces without work or money. Soon their employers / landlords would chuck them out.

International flights still operational, bringing in hordes of infected people from abroad.

25 MARCH ONWARD: Most people accept lockdown. Supply chains of essential goods broken to a great extent.

26 MARCH, MIDNIGHT: International flights stopped. But damage already done.

28 MARCH: PM sets up PM Cares fund which is beyond all government audits. Offers CSR and tax benefits for contribution to it.

After realising that no transport will be available, crores of migrant workers walk or cycle home hundreds of kilometres away. Many desperately hire auto rickshaws, trucks, and even concrete mixers to reach home.

No civilised arrangements made for their food, water, or medical help. Instead, many are beaten up for violating lockdown and dumped into prison-like camps where no                                                                                            physical distancing is possible.

Over 300 people die on the way due to fatigue or in accidents. On 18 April, a 12-year-old girl, after walking almost 150 kms from Telangana to Chhattisgarh, dies just an hour before reaching home. Pregnant woman gives birth on the road. Jyoti Kumari, a 15-year-old brave-heart, carries her debilitated father on a bicycle from Gurugram to Darbhanga, a distance of 1200 kms.

3 MAY: Flypast and flower shower by helicopters for COVID warriors. Benefit?

Shramik Special trains start after lots of pressure from all sides, but with no definite plans. Fare + Rs.50 collected from labourers who are already low on money and food.Top of Form

23 MAY: The Indian Railways have run 2,600 Shramik Specials so far, transporting around 36 lakh stranded migrants. This means they have covered about 10% of the stranded workers who wish to go home.

Nero constructs when the country cries. A needless central vista project worth Rs.20,000 crore approved, in a replay of the vulgar vainglory of some Sultans and Badshahs of Delhi dating from the 12th century to the Brits.

THE ENTIRE PERIOD OF LOCK-DOWN TILL NOW: State governments, NGOs, and countless individuals help in cash and kind to the migrant and the stranded. NGOs like Swaraj Abhijan, Karwane Mohabbat, and Mercy Mission distribute ration and food packets to lakhs and cash to thousands. A group of young people in our condominium, who had no experience of social work, distributes 10,000 food packets and dry ration. Our domestic help, a widow with two growing children who is perpetually in debt, gives 10 kgs of rice to migrant workers. The government failed us. Yet, the country hasn’t faced a famine during the last 79 days only because of the compassion and warmth of this great country expressed through their NGOs and ordinary people.

Tuesday, 26 May 2020

I will post the second part of this article on 28 March

Graphic courtesy The Worldometer

Disaster Diary - 1 / A letter to a friend

Dear …,

The video you've sent is chilling. I couldn’t watch it for beyond maybe 30 seconds. Still, thanks for sharing. We need to keep reminding ourselves.

In India today, crores of migrant labourers have no job, most of them, no shelter either. They are honest citizens who make their living through hard work, they aren’t beggars. Today, they are starving. Many of them have survived the last 48 days because of doles given out by governments, and mostly, NGOs. Human dignity is a fancy word in Indian today, like caviar or opera; it has no place on the ground.

As I write this in the comfort of my study and the security of three meals a day etc., a huge number of people, including children, women with a baby in arms and a sack on their head, are walking hundreds of miles. The summer is on; the temperature 40+ everywhere. Most of them hungry. Many have been avoiding highways and taking unpaved routes. It is no joy to walk on the sharp stones on railway tracks. Yet, many prefer the precarious path because their fucking protectors, the police, might beat them up if they are visible. Last night, I watched NDTV’s Uma Sudhir showing us some people who had walked from Hussainabad in Nalgonda district to Secunderabad in the hope of catching a train to Jharkhand. There was none. The Telangana chief minister struts about the country in a private aircraft, but his police packed off the labourers in a rickety bus back to Hussainabad. Far away, near Agra, Alok Pandey interviewed a migrant worker. He had already walked 200 kilometres from Delhi, but his home in Chhapra in Bihar was still over 800 kilometres away. The small man showed the last plastic bottle of water he was carrying and said he had Rs.10 on him. When Pandey asked him why he had begun the journey despite all the risks involved, he broke down.

These humans try to make themselves invisible, but they are not completely, at least to our eyes, thanks to journalists like Alok Pandey and Uma Sudhir. But they are certainly invisible to our conscience. We think of them only when our placid sense of right and wrong is punctured by an egregious tragedy, like a goods train running over 14 of them. If death is less telegenic, like say, two men on cycle being crushed by a car, or some other wretched of the earth simply dropping dead in exhaustion or dehydration, should we lose our sleep?

Yesterday, I read an article in the Hindu which puts the number of migrant workers in India at 13 crores. A veteran journalist, Prem Shankar Jha, estimates the number at 10 crores. Let’s put the number in some kind of perspective. Among the 235 countries in the world, only 14 have a population over 10 crores.

Imagine. The entire population of Mexico, Egypt, UK, or Vietnam, or the combined population of Germany and France has no food, no income, no roof over their head, and many of them are on the road struggling under a pitiless sun, with empty pockets and emptier stomachs. They had no food where they had begun from, they may not have any food if at all they reach their destination. But they will have the comfort of being close to the people they love.

Such a heartless government, such heartless rulers. Such a craven judiciary which does everything they can to please the political executive. But most importantly, such a hopelessly stupid and selfish rest of the country that doesn’t give a shit when others are dying a slow, systematic, man-made death.

I take no moral high ground. You and I are a part of the problem.

12 May 2020

Mir Taqi Mir

সুবাতাস বলে যাও, কিছুই কি যায় আসে

বসন্ত এসেছে বলে আজ

যখন রিক্ত আমি, হারিয়েছি সবই

আমার কুলায় ও উদ্যান?

-         মীর তাকি মীর

The Pandemic and We

According to worldometer.info/coronavirus, the cumulative figures for the COVID-19 pandemic for the US, the UK, and India yesterday (04 May 2019) were:

USA – 1,212,835 cases; 69,921 deaths

UK – 190,584 cases; 28,734 deaths

India – 46,476 cases; 1,571 deaths

Compared to the US and the UK, the governments of which botched up their initial response to the pandemic and allowed the disease to spread freely, India has fared way better, particularly if you consider that we have a much larger population and much poorer healthcare facilities. However, before we hurt ourselves patting our own backs, let’s also contrast ourselves with two comparable countries in terms of geography, population density, and infrastructure.

Pakistan – 20,941 cases; 476 deaths

Bangladesh – 10,143 cases; 182 deaths

And let’s not even try to compare ourselves with those that have managed the pandemic effectively. Vietnam which has a population of 95 million (9.5 crores) has reported 271 cases and ZERO deaths. Wow! (New Zealand has been much touted by the media, but it has a population under five million (50 lakhs) hardly comparable to India)

I wouldn’t hazard a guess why the figures are far lower in resource-starved South Asia compared to many European countries and the US. However, as far as our country is concerned, let’s not jump to congratulate the government in New Delhi because we haven’t seen any transparent message from them on what percentage of population we’re testing to identify the cases early, how many new hospital beds we have created, how many PPE kits have been given to our doctors and other health workers, or even how many additional ventilators have been procured. Leaders of civilised countries reel out these figures, while our leaders are silent on them but prefer to shower us with rose petals from helicopters.

This government loves self-publicity and the absence of full-page adverts in newspapers tells us they have very little to say.

Also, healthcare is a state subject and we have seen responses from state governments that range from brilliant to abysmal. Clearly, Kerala has done brilliantly, but there have been miracles elsewhere too, like in Chhattisgarh (58 cases, no death), Asom (43 cases, 1 death), and Odisha (170 cases, 1 death).

At the other end of the spectrum is West Bengal, which seems to be spending more energy and time fudging coronavirus-related statistics than fighting the pandemic. Everyone I speak with in Kolkata seems mortified. They know if they contract the disease, they will have to deal with an insane healthcare bureaucracy and will have little chance.

But as Indians, let’s hope the pandemic won’t become a mass-killer like it has been in the US, UK, Spain, Italy, and France.

Experience has taught us to be less fanciful with hopes.

05 May 2020